Disaster Threats

This section contains descriptions of the most likely disaster threats for America.

For the latest threat information updates, sign up for our free quarterly newsletter by clicking here. To find out what threats are likely in your area, take our free disaster threat assessment by clicking here. It is not a matter of if but when — disasters are going to happen.

Whether you live in an urban area or rural area of the country, no one is immune from the possibility of a violent crime, terrorist attack or natural disaster. These are the unfortunate facts of living in our world today.

Many of these disasters can strike with very little advance warning — where evacuation is not always an option or the best option. These disaster situations include:

• Home invasion
• Earthquake
• Tornado
• Terrorist attack
• Chemical plant accident
• Nuclear accident or attack
• Civil unrest /riots
• Large scale fires
• Pandemic (e.g. bird flu, SARS outbreak)

You owe it to yourself and your family to PREPARE now BEFORE DISASTER STRIKES! - Your life may depend on it.

One of the most important decisions you can make for yourself and your loved ones is to plan ahead. This includes having on hand the essential supplies and equipment you will need in advance of an emergency.

Don't wait until it is too late. Anytime a major disaster occurs, there is a huge run on available safe rooms, supplies and equipment. The time to acquire these critical items is now while supplies are available. By acquiring these items now, you can greatly increase your chance of survival.

Most of the real tragedy and suffering strike those caught unprepared. It is better to have the essential safe rooms, equipment, and supplies on hand and not need them, rather than not have them and need them!

Most of us would not dare live without insurance coverage for our lives, homes, and cars. How much more important is it to have a secure space in our homes as well.

Remember during and immediately after a major disaster, you and your family may very well be on your own for over 72 hours without any assistance from outside services—because most fire and police groups will be overwhelmed with thousands of requests.

 

Disaster Threat Descriptions

1. Home invasion

Home invasions involve situations when one or more individuals enter into a home to do potential harm to the occupant(s) inside the home (e.g., physical attack, robbery, kidnapping, torture, murder).

Typical home invasion scenarios include:

• Jealous spouse or ex spouse seeking physical harm or abuse to the other party.
• Child abductions
• Stalkers
• Kidnapping for ransom money
• Disgruntled employees seeking revenge on supervisor or company owner
• Burglars seeking money
• Crazed drug users seeking money for their drug habits.

2. Nuclear accident or attack

Nuclear attack is one of the most likely weapons that terrorist may use in the future (exploding a nuclear device or through an attack on a nuclear power plant).

Even a small nuclear weapon would create major damage and destruction:

The blast from a small one-kiloton nuclear weapon—such as a crude improvised weapon or a portable battlefield weapon—in a major urban city during the daytime would:

• kill thousands of people and injure thousands more;
• produce radioactive fallout that could kill half the exposed population as far as three miles away within a few weeks;
• demolish most buildings and other structures over ten city blocks; and
• seriously disrupt transportation, communications, utilities, and other infrastructure.

Health impact

A nuclear explosion generates intense thermal radiation, which ignites fires and causes severe skin burns, retinal damage, and blindness. Moreover, nuclear explosions produce intense bursts of ionizing radiation, which devastate the immune system and cause nausea, vomiting, sterility, blood disease, and death.

In addition to the blast, there is also radiation fallout. Nuclear explosions near the surface of the earth throw up clouds of radioactive material, which are then dispersed by winds. The fallout from a major nuclear blast or nuclear power plant accident, under average weather conditions, could deliver a "downwind" radiation dose within the first hour that would be fatal to half of the exposed population within five to ten miles during the subsequent few weeks.

Nuclear accidents and nuclear bomb explosions and can travel hundreds of miles on the winds. Thyroid cancer attributable to Chernobyl "...has been documented up to 200 miles from the accident site."

Chernobyl has shown, and continues to reveal, that the greatest danger from nuclear radiation is to the thyroid glands of children. Researchers have found that in certain areas near Chernobyl that over 35 percent of children under the age of four at the time of the accident, will likely develop thyroid cancer.

 

There are many areas of risk for nuclear radiation exposure

• Nuclear power plant accidents
• Nuclear materials processing plant accidents Nuclear waste (e.g. radioactive waste from hospitals, radioactive waste from nuclear power plants).
• Nuclear waste transport truck or train accidents
• Accidents involving non-waste, but normal daily nuclear materials transport (trucks, planes, trains, couriers) Millions of packages of radioactive material are shipped in the United States each year.

ON September 5, 2004 , the New York Times reported:

TERRORISTS are striving to acquire and then use nuclear weapons against the United States. Success, as defined by Osama bin Laden, would be four million dead Americans. Mounting evidence makes this much abundantly clear. Documents discovered in Afghanistan seem to reveal Al Qaeda's detailed knowledge of nuclear weaponry, while intelligence confirms the terrorists' attempts to acquire nuclear material on the black market

3. Earthquakes

The probability for an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater is significant in the near future,. A quake with a magnitude equal to that of the 1811- 1812 quakes that hit middle America (near Memphis) could result in great loss of life and property damage in the billions of dollars.

Most casualties result from falling objects and debris which is a result of the earthquake shaking. The duration and amount of shaking associated with an earthquake as well as the age and construction type of a structure greatly determines the amount of damage that may result.

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Earthquakes can also cause secondary effects such as fires, natural gas leaks, and landslides.

More importantly, there is likely to be a widespread damage to electric lines, gas lines, and water lines that would take weeks and months to repair. During the immediate time after an earthquake, looting is also likely to occur in urban areas.

4. Severe Winter Storms

Snow storms and ice storms can cause widespread damage to power lines resulting in lost of electric power for days and weeks at a time. Also, roads may be impassable due to fallen trees and access to food and drug supplies may be limited.

5. Tornadoes

Tornadoes are nature's most violent storms. Spawned from powerful thunderstorms, tornadoes can uproot trees, destroy buildings and turn harmless objects into deadly missiles. They can devastate a neighborhood in seconds.

A tornado appears as a rotating, funnel shaped cloud that extends to the ground with whirling winds that can reach 300 miles per hour. Damage paths can be in excess of one mile wide and 50 miles long. Every state is at some risk from this hazard.

1. Tornadoes are capable of destroying homes and vehicles and can cause fatalities.
2. Tornadoes may strike quickly, with little or no warning.
3. Tornadoes are most frequently reported east of the Rocky Mountains during spring and summer months but can occur in any state at any time of year.
4. In the southern states, peak tornado season is March through May, while peak months in the northern states are during the late spring and early summer.

NOTE: Your home may be built according to local building codes, but that does not mean that it can withstand winds from extreme events like tornadoes or major hurricanes.

The purpose of a wind shelter or "Safe Room" is to provide a space where you and your household can seek refuge that provides a high level of protection. You can build a shelter in one of the several places in your home:

6. Hurricanes

Major hurricanes covering a widespread area are likely to result in damage to electric lines, gas lines, and water lines that would take weeks and months to repair. In addition, food and water supply shortages may develop. During this time homes may be at risk for looting and burglary. Safe rooms can be used to store valuables during this time or as a place to stage your reconstruction efforts.

7. Biological terrorist attacks

Biological weapons are diseases harnessed by man as a military weapon.

Biological weapons can be bacteria, viruses, or toxins, and essentially are nothing more than intentionally spread disease. There is evidence Soviet scientists genetically altered diseases at their BW laboratories, making diseases even more lethal and resistant to treatment.

It cannot be assumed that a Biological weapon agent can be treated. As stated in the last paragraph, some of these diseases have been altered to resist treatment, and some diseases, mostly viruses, have no cure. As with chemical weapons, the best defense against these agents is protective equipment and good hygiene.

We believe that the number one terrorist bio weapon is not Anthrax but weaponized smallpox. In addition to Russia we believe that North Korea also has weaponized smallpox.

World Net Daily reports that "If suicide bombers come to America, they are likely to be carrying biological, chemical or nuclear weapons with them, according to an al-Qaida memo discovered by Pakistani authorities."

World Net Daily, Sept 13, 2004

8. Chemical/toxic gas leaks — transportation accidents

According to CBS's 60 Minutes in a recent broadcast, there are more than 100 chemical plants - in backyards all across the United States - where a catastrophic accident or an act of sabotage by terrorists could endanger more than a million people. One plant in Chicago could affect almost three million people. And in California, the chemicals at one site have the potential to kill, injure or displace more than eight million people.

These statistics have been provided from chemical companies who are required by Federal law to file a risk management plan" with the Environmental Protection Agency, describing the "worst" case scenario that could happen at their plant.

The American Chemistry Council is requiring all its members to have "enhanced security" in place by the end of 2004. But only 7 percent of the 15,000 chemical facilities in the United States are members of that organization.

• At least 123 plants each keep amounts of toxic chemicals that, if released, could form deadly vapor clouds that would put more than 1 million people in danger, according to an Environmental Protection Agency analysis. - The Washington Post December 16, 2001
• A previously undisclosed study by the Army surgeon general concludes that as many as 2.4 million people could be killed or injured in a terrorist attack against a U.S. toxic chemical plant in a densely populated area. - The Washington Post March 12, 2002
• The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review found in recent investigations that a reporter could easily enter more than 60 plants storing catastrophic amounts of chemicals in Baltimore, Chicago, Houston and western Pennsylvania. - The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review June 11, 2002
• Releases of toxic chemicals can kill and injure people located relatively far from the accident--As a result, failure to identify and evaluate opportunities to reduce the risks from these types of relatively rare accidents could ultimately lead to thousands of fatalities, injuries, and evacuations. - Argonne National Laboratory December, 2000
• U.S. chemical plants represent the third highest risk of fatalities from possible terrorist attacks. - Protecting the American Homeland, Brookings Institution Press March, 2002

Based on industry reports to the EPA, there are more than 30 cities in 25 states that contain the 112 chemical facilities that threaten one million or more workers and local residents in the event of a toxic release due to a terrorist attack or accidental release. A U.S. Army's Surgeon General report estimated that more than two million people could be killed or injured in a terrorist attack on a U.S. chemical plant.

Twenty years ago, the world learned an important lesson about the killing power of toxic chemicals. The accidental release of a cloud of methyl isocyanate at a Union Carbide insecticide plant in Bhopal, India, in 1984 killed approximately 8,000 people immediately, more than twice the death toll of 9/11. Another 12,000 people have subsequently died from the effects of the Bhopal incident and 150,000 more have suffered injuries.4

Chemical transportation accidents

Ten months ago, government safety officials warned that more than half of the nation's 60,000 pressurized rail tank cars did not meet industry standards, and they raised questions about the safety of the rest of the fleet as well. Their worry, that the steel tanks could rupture too easily in an accident, proved prophetic.

On Thursday, a train crash in South Carolina caused a deadly release of chlorine: 9 people were killed, 58 were hospitalized and hundreds more sought treatment. The ninth body was found yesterday, and thousands of people have been kept from their homes.
Last summer, a derailment in Texas caused a steel tank car to break open, spewing clouds of chlorine gas that killed three people. New York Times, 2005

9. Civil unrest /riots

Civil unrest and riots can result in several risks to a residential dwelling.

The most likely risk from civil unrest and riots is looting and home invasions which would take place in the event of widespread power failure where alarm systems may not work and where local law enforcement would be swamped with calls and would be unable to respond quickly to a home invasion.

Disasters that can cause civil unrest and riots include earthquakes, hurricanes, winter storms, disease outbreaks/pandemics, and nuclear (or special electromagnetic pulse (EMP) bombs (EMP bombs are bombs that can be exploded above the ground can render most electronic and computer based equipment useless over several square miles. One such attack was recently featured in an episode of ABC's TV series "24" where terrorists set off such a similar EMP bomb) *.

There are several highly contagious diseases that could cause widespread panic and sickness. These diseases are SARS, the Asian Bird flu, and other flus that could surface (see next disaster threat description below).

* Footnote: The Dow Jones news service recently reported the release of a government Commission study to Congress that assesses the threat to the United States of an Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack.

An EMP attack occurs when an enemy sets off a nuclear explosion high in the Earth's atmosphere. The electromagnetic pulse generated by the blast destroys the electronics and satellites in its field of vision. For a detonation above the Midwest, that could mean the entire continental U.S.

Few if any people would die in such an attack, but the blast would wipe out most electronics and telecommunications, including the power grid. The Commission notes that little in the private sector is hardened to withstand EMP attack and that the military has only limited protection. After an EMP assault, the nation would be highly vulnerable to secondary attack by conventional forces or a biological weapon.

China and Russia have the capability to launch an EMP weapon—and have informed America accordingly.

But it's a relatively unsophisticated EMP weapon in the hands of terrorists that causes the most concern. Such a weapon could consist of one nuclear warhead attached to a Scud missile launched from a barge off the U.S. coast to shut down a large part of the United States. Widespread food shortages, social chaos, and riots would likely occur in this situation.

Note: Safe rooms can be designed to protect sensitive electronic equipment (e.g. computers, power generators, refrigerators, etc.) as long as that equipment is stored in the safe room area.

10. Disease outbreak pandemic (e.g. bird flu, SARS outbreak)

There are several highly contagious diseases that could cause widespread panic and sickness. These diseases are SARS, the Asian Bird flu, and other flus that could surface.

Recently (April 13, 2005), the Associated Press in London reported that thousands of scientists were scrambling at the urging of global health authorities to destroy vials of a pandemic flu strain sent to labs in 18 countries as part of routine testing. The rush, urged by the World Health Organization, was sparked by a slim, but real, risk that the samples, could spark a global flu epidemic. The vials of virus sent by a U.S. company went to nearly 5,000 labs, mostly in the United States, officials said. . . . ." It was not immediately clear why the 1957 pandemic strain, which killed between 1 million and 4 million people - was in the proficiency test kits routinely sent to labs. . . .The 1957 strain has not been included in the flu vaccine since 1968, and anyone born after that date has no immunity to it.

Associated Press, April 13, 2005

A flu epidemic happens when a virus spreads rapidly through a population. This happens nearly every year. A pandemic occurs when a virus spreads across the world. Recent epidemics include:

1918: Spanish flu pandemic
More than 20 million worldwide in a pandemic known as the Spanish flu. An estimated 20 percent to 40 percent of the world's population falls ill during the worst-ever outbreak, which is thought to have spread through troop movement in World War I. The Spanish flu works quickly, sometimes infecting and killing a person in the same day. Unlike other flu viruses, the Spanish flu kills healthy adults.

1957: Asian flu pandemic
The Asian flu pandemic claims around one million lives after spreading from China. Experts identify the virus quickly and create a vaccine available in limited quantities. Spread largely through schoolchildren who bring the virus home to their families, the Asian flu virus causes the most deaths among the elderly population.

1968: Hong Kong flu pandemic
The Hong Kong flu pandemic kills approximately one million people, with the elderly population the hardest hit. The virus was first detected in Hong Kong in early 1968

Feb 21, 2005 2:07 PM (ET)WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Avian flu poses the single biggest threat to the world right now and health officials may not yet have all the tools they need to fight it, the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Monday.

"This is a very ominous situation for the globe," Gerberding told a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, calling it the "most important threat that we are facing right now."

"I think we can all recognize a similar pattern probably occurred prior to 1918," she said, referring to the 1918 pandemic of influenza, which also passed from birds to people and killed between 20 million and 40 million people globally.

11. Fires (brush fires, forest fires, urban city fires)

Each year, wide spread out of control fires threaten thousands of homes in the United States. Especially for families who don't or can't carry fire insurance, an evacuation can mean leaving behind and losing valuables and other possessions for good. Properly designed safe rooms can provide an ideal solution for storing valuables that you will not be able to take with you with a short notice evacuation.

In some cases where roads are blocked, your safe room could even mean survival.

12. Flood

Sudden floods can be caused by dike failure, dam failure, flash floods or tidal waves (Tsunamis). The most important protection in these situations is to have a safe room where you can store valuables quickly before you head for higher ground. Even when you have advance notice of a pending flood, you may not have sufficient space in your vehicles to carry all of your valuable possessions.

In addition, you can store proper floatation devices or inflatable rafts in your secure space in the event you do not have time to find higher ground before the flood hits.

After the flood, there may be looting that occurs while you are away from your home. A secure space can be used to protect your valuables in these events.